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Volatility\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<br>6\uff0c\u591a\u5e02\u573a\u8054\u52a8\u4e0b\u91d1\u878d\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6570\u7406\u5206\u6790<br>7\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u9a8c\u8bc1<br>8\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eCopula\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790<br>9\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u5236\u521b\u65b0<br>10\uff0c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u66f2\u9762\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5<br>11\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<br>12\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u7814\u7a76<br>13\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6570\u7406\u5173\u7cfb\u5efa\u6a21<br>14\uff0c\u534f\u6574\u5206\u6790\u5728\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<br>15\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b<br>16\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6570\u5b66\u5f71\u54cd\u8def\u5f84\u7814\u7a76<br>17\uff0c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u53ca\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br>18\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4e0e\u62d3\u5c55<br>19\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9a71\u52a8\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236<br>20\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u9884\u6d4b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>1\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eLogit\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u8def\u5f84\u7814\u7a76<br>2\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528<br>3\uff0cCopula\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u503a\u5238\u8fdd\u7ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5efa\u6a21\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790<br>4\uff0cKMV\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fe1\u7528\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u7684\u9002\u7528\u6027\u7814\u7a76<br>5\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u5b50\u5bf9\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u8fc1\u5f99\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1<br>6\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u5ba2\u6237\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6982\u7387\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4f18\u5316\u8def\u5f84<br>7\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u8f6c\u79fb\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u8bc1\u5238\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<br>8\uff0c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u8fdd\u7ea6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790<br>9\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u673a\u5236<br>10\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u5411\u91cf\u673a\u7684\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30<br>11\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797\u7b97\u6cd5\u5728\u591a\u5143\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u8bc6\u522b\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528<br>12\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e92\u6362\uff08CDS\uff09\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u6570\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790<br>13\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae<br>14\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u5728\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u52a8\u6001\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<br>15\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d22\u52a1\u6bd4\u7387\u5728\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u5efa\u6a21\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5206\u6790<br>16\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<br>17\uff0c\u7ec4\u5408\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5e94\u7528<br>18\uff0c\u96c6\u6210\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u96c6\u6210\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u6790<br>19\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u7f13\u91ca\u5de5\u5177\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u6a21\u578b\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1<br>20\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u5bf9\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7684\u6570\u7406\u5206\u6790<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 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